What the peer-reviewed science says about shale gas

Shale gas exploration and extraction via hydraulic fracturing is a controversial and polarizing topic in New Brunswick. The public is divided on the issue and, as is often the case these days, social media are being used to rally supporters to one side or the other. Inflammatory rhetoric and exaggerated claims appear to dominate the discussion. That being said, it is far from clear yet whether NB has a sufficiently large and economically extractable reserve of gas to create a significant industry; it may turn out that shale gas may not exist in sufficient quantities,  or prices may not be sufficient to justify development at this time.  On the other hand, the gas is a public asset and so discussion of how to develop (or not develop) and utilize the asset is merited. For a useful outline of the shale industry in New Brunswick, see an article by A. Park of UNB (16) and an opinion piece by various UNB researchers.

The development of hydraulic fracturing technologies over the past 30 years or so has made extraction of shale gas economically feasible and attractive prices have allowed the industry to expand rapidly. An abundance of gas in the marketplace pushed down prices in 2011-2012 and the expansion of the industry has slowed somewhat. Information in the peer-reviewed scientific literature with respect to adverse environmental and health impacts from shale gas extraction is now beginning to appear. A number of these articles are available for free download and I would encourage people to read them, rather than accept the interpretations that appear in various media (or my interpretations, for that matter). It is fine to have opinions, but much better to have opinions based in verifiable data. Then we can have a rational discussion.
Continue reading

Facebooktwitterby feather

Can we fix the revenue generation problem?

“We will find efficiences and cut waste”

During election campaigns, political parties make various promises to the electorate. They seldom tell us where the money to fund the programs will come from, and, to be fair, when economies are growing quickly and tax revenue is flowing in, money might very well be available. These days, however, regional economies are not so robust and new dollars to fund new promises are hard to come by. Federal and provincial tax cuts in recent years have further reduced available revenue. Consequently, the new mantra is to make the promises and then state that funding will come from ‘finding efficiencies’ or cutting ‘waste’. It is rare for politicians to admit that certain taxes might have to be raised in order to fund their campaign promises.

Canadians expect to receive similar services from governments, regardless of which province they live in. Provincial governments have to find the revenue to meet those voter expectations. There is not much point in claiming we can eliminate a large number of those services and thus make large expenditure cuts – if you feel that way, you might find it more productive to go bark at the moon. As I showed in a previous post, when we adjust spending for inflation, non-healthcare government spending in New Brunswick has been fairly flat since the early 90s. Since then, the major contributor to rising spending has been growth in health care costs. That does not mean that new non-health programs have not been launched – it just means that they have been funded either by taking money from other programs or via debt financing. So it comes as no surprise that when Messrs Alward and Higgs promise to make spending cuts but not service cuts, they have a hard time doing so. Most of the ‘efficiencies’ have already been found over the past decade. That does not mean more can’t be found, but it can become increasingly difficult to do so.

Continue reading

Facebooktwitterby feather

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia doing poorly in comparison to other provinces – update

Provincial job creation comparisons: Is Quebec the new ‘boom’ province? January 2012 – January 2013 shows Quebec with the largest % gain year-over-year when compared to NB, NS, ON and AB. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia both had significant job losses year-over-year for January. See details here.

Facebooktwitterby feather